Oilfield Magazine


Oil up for three consecutive weeks!

Oil up for three consecutive weeks!
April 22
16:58 2016


Oil prices jumped on Friday and were poised for a third week of gains as market sentiment turned more upbeat amid signs a persisting global supply glut may be easing.

Strong gasoline consumption in the United States, increasing signs of declining production around the world, and oilfield outages have underpinned a return to investment in the sector, traders said.

“The current rally is driven by a market sentiment that is becoming more and more convinced that the worst is over and the global oil market rebalancing process is already in play,” said Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York.


International benchmark Brent crude futures were trading at $45.52 per barrel at 12 p.m. ET (1600 GMT), up 99 cents, or 2.2 percent, from their last settlement.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 93 cents, or 2.2 percent, at $44.11 a barrel.

Brent has risen about 5.7 percent so far this week and WTI 9.3 percent as both benchmarks headed for a third consecutive week of gains. Crude is up more than two-thirds since its 2016 lows between January and February.

Traders also pointed to strong crude imports to China in March as providing support to prices.

Still, some analysts warned that the oil market was still far from balancing supply and demand.

“While this recent rally has the potential to run further to the upside … we believe that it is not yet driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals,” Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.

Goldman said it was “premature to embrace these green shoots”, maintaining its view that a sustainable balancing of the market, driven by declines in U.S. shale oil production, would take place in the third quarter of 2016.

But the Wall Street bank changed its view on energy to “neutral” from “underweight”, citing a reduced likelihood of extreme downside.

Another supportive factor has been producers taking advantage of higher prices by locking in production.

French investment bank Natixis said they expect producers in the U.S. to take every opportunity to aggressively hedge as soon as oil prices recover for short periods of time.

Falling output, especially in the United States, where many producers have reeled from an up to 70 percent oil price rout since 2014, has also helped to lift the market.

Natixis said it expected U.S. oil production to drop by at least 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, compared with 2015, and by another 500,000 bpd in 2017.

Despite the recent rally, oil markets remain oversupplied as between 1 and 2 million barrels of crude are being pumped out of the ground every day in excess of demand, leaving storage tanks around the world filled to the brim with unsold fuel.  Source

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